Recession! What recession?

Can Economists Predict & Prevent Recessions?

Chart by Bureau of Economic Analysis — Federal Reserve Economic Database. Public Domain.

Barely anyone is talking about a recession now. But just a couple of months ago, it was front-page and prime-time news.

On July 4th, I stumbled upon an interesting WSJ article. It had the following attention-grabbing headline: “The Richcession Keeps Rolling”.

After reading the article, I realized what they meant by “Richcession”, as opposed to recession. What’s happening is that richer Americans cannot as readily increase their wages. They also see that their business profits are sagging. And although layoffs are happening, they are mostly affecting high earners.

And here’s the thing, overall layoffs are still low. In fact, more people are now working than before the pandemic.

So, what does all of this mean? Are we headed toward a recession?

Here is an excerpt from a ⁠June 4th WSJ article⁠: “Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal in April put the ⁠probability of a recession⁠ at some point in the next 12 months above 50%. But they ⁠have said that since October⁠, and the recession appears no closer.” So, in other words, no one really knows — not even the experts!

To better understand the history of America’s recessions, their frequencies, intensities and durations…