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You should be an economist, because…
Will we have a recession or not?
Here is an excerpt from a June 4th Wall Street Journal article:
“Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal in April put the probability of a recession at some point in the next 12 months above 50%. But they have said that since October, and the recession appears no closer.”
And here is an excerpt from a July 27 Wal Street Journal article, titled “Recession Odds Just Got Longer”:
“what looked to many economists like a narrow path to a soft landing is obviously wider now.”
These two articles, and thousands more, convey and clarify one common point: that economists cannot predict recessions. Ergo, you should be an economist because you can be half the time, and still hold your job!
In a recent podcast conversation, aptly titled Recession! What recession? (HbN-S3E27), my guest (Dr. Price V. Fishback) described how in the 1960s economists believed that they had a firm handle on how the economy works. They thought “they had it licked”. What this meant to them was that they could predict and prevent the next recession. Well, they were wrong. Abysmally wrong! America experienced the horrendous recession of the late 1970s to the early 1980s. It was a double whammy — high inflation and high unemployment…
